Facebook Under Threat!

With the rumour mills going into overdrive about Google launching it’s very own social network, it got me to thinking about the future of the web and where we might be in years to come.

I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had with people where they believe that Facebook is the future of the internet, the one site that all people will continue to use for years and years to come and it never fails to amaze me.

Web Where The Default Is Social

Now for many, my views may be impossible to comprehend, especially with Zuckerberg himself unveiling measures at this year’s F8 Developers Conference stating “We are building toward a web where the default is social”. I think it’s safe to say that Zuckerberg sees Facebook as being at the forefront of that movement.

Now don’t get me wrong, by opening up the platform and releasing the API (including the realtime search API), they’ve managed to remain agile and have avoided the same pitfalls as MySpace. I am good friends with a number of the guys over at Facebook and have great respect for everything that they do – my issue isn’t with them, it’s with people who wear blinkers and convince themselves that the only thing they need to bother with is Facebook to remain “social”.

Social Media Isn’t A Destination

Social Media isn’t a destination… it’s not a site that you arrive at, create a page and occasionally update. Whilst most traditional businesses like to plan their linear route from A to B, that approach simply won’t work in the social web. Through the process of listening, talking and learning, more often than not, you’ll find that your destination changes as consumer behaviours and trends shift. The real skill comes in being flexible to adapt and transition.

Whilst planning and strategy is critical – never forget that relationship building comes first and foremost and isn’t something that you can ROI. These relationships will become the future of your business as word of mouth becomes more powerful than ever before.

Power Of The People Will Prevail

So whilst I agree with Zuckerberg that the social web will become THE web, I think it’s important to recognise that no one platform can state that they’ll dominate this space and become the go-to destination, after all, the power of the people will prevail. The future of the web lays in their hands, not ours.

Flexibility of platform providers will enable them to meet changing consumer needs. Which platform(s) that will be in years to come, only time will tell.

*wipes brow and steps off of soapbox*…. right I’ll be off to get a coffee now, would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

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http://Enteryourwebsiteaddress... Jamie T

I couldn’t agree more. People used to think that MySpace was going to be the huge thing and then before you know it it sunk. I don’t think that Facebook will go down the same route, but I think it’s safe to say they won’t be the only player in this field. Great post.
http://Enteryourwebsiteaddress... Phil Readman

nice post,

I like the ‘social media isn’t a destination’ section. The futures scary as far as social media goes, I think it may make or break allot of business that get the planning wrong and just dive in thinking its simple. I think it may be a few years down the line yet though before we see this social beast gobble up some poor unsuspecting businesses!!!

ta phil.
http://Enteryourwebsiteaddress... Enter your name…

Its a whirlwind that will constantly evolve with reinvention of whats new ,whats hot and where are my choices… Its not safe to say that a platform will be the future of the web or the web will create one platform of use. We are at the tip of the iceberg, we havent even scratched the surface in tangeability yet.
http://www.antiquote.com Antiquote

The thing that will hold Facebook, and every other social media/networking site, back is the current lack of a unified online persona.

Offline we have one name, one address, one passport number etc but online we have vastly different profiles across a huge range of sites. Go to a new one and you start the process all over again. Imagine having a single profile with site-by-site customization of what is imported.

For a single company to succeed they need to position themselves as the go-to place for an online persona. You sign up, add your details and then whichever site you choose to visit it automatically imports the info you choose to share. Instant connectivity, instantly social and instantly you.

Only problem is that giving all that data to a company in pursuit of profit would only end badly. Perhaps an international, not-for-profit standards body like the W3C could unify such a standard and help it grow. Surely that would help the social web explode even more than it already has.
http://www.antiquote.com Antiquote

Gah, that had line breaks and everything in it!
http://globalpersonals.co.uk/mel-kirk.html Mel Kirk

Phil – Thanks for your comments. Completely agree with you. I think some companies will continue to ride the crest of the wave as it were, but unless it’s underpinned by a true understanding – the competition that aren’t currently doing “social” will catch up and a lost opportunity will exist. Exciting times for those doing it well though

Enter Your Name – Agreed. I think the next area of great interest is how the merge will take place between people’s on and offline presence.
http://Enteryourwebsiteaddress... Enter your name…

Interesting point Mel, with People “Who Do It Well” with social media! ..Do you really think these companies are creating Hard Cash as a result of their doing it well, and if so how is it that major brands out their are still fluffing around with. the concept of SM. I truly believe their is a lot of leading up the garden path with business social media at present.
The impact of Businesses translating it into hard cash and real brand awareness I think is yet to be cracked..
http://www.antiquote.com Antiquote

Mel – Japan kind of gets it. Plenty of apartments there come with an email as well as a postal address. Not sure how widespread it is though.

Getting an OAuth ID along with a birth certificate! Oh the joy.
http://www.samsethi.me Sam Sethi

Hello Mel

Funny you have written this. I am in the process of writing a post on why I’m attempting to leave the pull of the Googlesphere. The issues are mainly due to the lack of product integration, their failure to get social and I don’t have much hope for Google.me

Having spoken to Zuckerberg and Dave Recordon recently I think Facebook can be a major threat to Google’s core revenue search proposition as well as challenge adsense their main revenue. I predict that Facebook will launch a Facebook Ad model around the web for blog/publishers. I also predict Facebook will extend their ‘Credits’ model outside of Facebook to become a universal micropayment system.

In addition the launch of OpenGraph Protocol and Graph API are initial attempts by Facebook to create a Semantic Search Engine that could leapfrog Google. (And I never thought I would ever say that).

For example instead of searching on Google, I would rather ask friends in my social network on twitter and/or Facebook for a recommendation be it muic, book, film, restaurtant, plumber. Google Search cannot do that for me.

So every time you click a ‘like’ button, Facebook is capturing our attention and adding some context to their semantic datastore to make social search/recommendations better.

So Facebook may not be the web but it jut maybe the first place to visit just as Google used to be my default page in my browser.
http://globalpersonals.co.uk/mel-kirk.html Mel Kirk

Antiquote – Completely agree. I know that Facebook Connect took a step towards that, but there’s a whole distance yet to travel with that. Interesting point about Japan – I hadn’t heard of that before.

Enter Your Name – I think that companies are seeing hard cash from it, but often the measurements aren’t in place to record this properly and of course, some metrics just can’t be measured – for example word of mouth, or retention. I think many of the large companies are still struggling due to the red tape that surrounds their current processes and many are afraid of opening themselves up and handing over power to their consumers.

Sam- Oooh would be interested in reading your post when it’s completed. I’m still very much of the opinion that consumers want to support the under-dog, the non-commercial, the non-evil Google-esques of the world (actually something I was going to write my next post on). Completely agree with you on the direction of Facebook, I know that they have big plans and I would much rather take a personal recommendation than something Google’s bots determine are suitable for me. That said, I don’t think we can assume that Facebook have the web in a bag – already we’re experiencing fatigue with many of the members and so the interesting next step is to see how consumer behaviours continue. What are your thoughts?
http://www.speedcommunications.com Nicole Hudspith

Interesting post Mel – as communicators, we are constantly reviewing new ways of engaging, whether that be with the press or the public. I agree that Facebook has remained agile and therefore is still a worthwhile investment as part of an integrated social media campaign. It has become so popular because it has an audience of 400 million. But you cannot ignore the others – both established and emerging.

Although Facebook is dominant in some western territories, it is not necessarily the dominant global player in social media.

Whilst the platform goes some way to engaging your target audience, more than that – it is the content. A Facebook group or profile page is nothing without good content. A twitter stream is just cheap, ineffective advertising if it is such a stream of promotions.

My final thought is that as the web becomes more personal and more fragmented, I wouldn’t be surprised to see expect niche communities springing up and creating their own platforms rather than using a generic platform.
http://globalpersonals.co.uk/mel-kirk.html Mel Kirk

Hey Nicole – Thanks for your comments! I think you’re right and we as a business are witnessing strong growth in niche networks. People want to connect directly with people that they feel they can relate to, without the “noise” that can be created on the web as a whole.

Content is certainly king. I’ve always advised partners that if they don’t want to regularly update content on their Facebook pages or Twitter accounts, it may be best not to have one as it can have more of a negative impact than positive.